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Fri, 16 Sep. 2022

Chinese and Russian militaries share a potential weakness, new US report finds

China's military leaders share a potential weakness has undermined their Russian counterparts in Ukraine and could hamper their ability to wage a similar war, according to a new report from the US National Defense University.

The report identifies a lack of cross-training as a possible Achilles' Heel within the People's Liberation Army (PLA), but analysts remain wary of underestimating China's capabilities and warn against comparisons with Russia.  

The report delved into the backgrounds of more than 300 of the PLA's top officers across its five services -- army, navy, air force, rocket force and strategic support force -- in the six years leading up to 2021. It found that in each service leaders were unlikely to have operational experience in any branch other than the one they began their careers in.

In other words, PLA soldiers stay soldiers, sailors stay sailors, airmen stay airmen. Rarely do they venture outside those silos, the report said, noting a sharp contrast to the US military, where cross-training has been a legal requirement since 1986.

The 73-page report went on to say that this "rigidity... could reduce China's effectiveness in future conflicts," particularly in conflicts requiring high levels of joint-service action, and suggests PLA forces would become bogged down by the same sort of problems that have bedeviled their Russian counterparts in Ukraine, "where the overall cohesion of forces was low."

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of its neighbor seven months ago, deficiencies in the Russian military structure have become plain to outside observers.

In the recent rout of Russian forces by a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Moscow's ground forces lacked air cover, analysts say, while earlier in the war, logistical problems played havoc with Russia's ability to resupply its forces -- its trucks lacked suitable tires for the terrain and kept breaking down from a lack of maintenance.

According to the report's author Joel Wuthnow, the PLA's senior leaders could face similar problems due to their lack of cross-training.

"Operational commanders, for instance, rarely have career-broadening experience in logistics, and vice versa," said the report by Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the university's Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs. 

"Operational commanders who never needed to gain a high level of understanding of logistics or maintenance might fail to use those forces optimally, paralleling another Russian failure in 2022."

In a comparison of four-star rank commanders in 2021 -- such as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs or the head of Indo-Pacific Command in the United States or leaders of the Central Military Commission or theater commands in China -- all of the 40 US officers had joint-service experience compared to 77% of their 31 Chinese equivalents, the report found.

It also noted another key difference: In the US, almost all the four-star commanders had operational experience. In China, almost half were "professional political commissars."

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