President Donald Trump made a false claim this week, stating that grocery prices are "going down" and "are down." In reality, grocery prices have continued to rise under his administration, and they were already on the increase before he implemented a nearly global 10% tariff earlier this month.
Trump made this inaccurate statement while criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Powell had recently warned that Trump’s tariff policies could lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation.
In a social media post on Thursday, Trump argued that Powell should have lowered interest rates "long ago" and should do so now, similar to the European Central Bank’s actions. Trump added: "Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS." Earlier, on Tuesday, Trump had made a similar claim, stating that the U.S. was collecting significant tariff revenue, "with the cost of almost all products going down, including gasoline, groceries, and just about everything else."
However, data from the Consumer Price Index shows that average grocery prices were 2.41% higher in March 2025 compared to March 2024, marking the highest year-over-year grocery inflation rate since August 2023. Additionally, March 2025 grocery prices were up by about 0.49% from February 2025, the highest month-to-month increase since October 2022.
In February 2025, grocery inflation was relatively low, with prices largely unchanged from January 2025. However, the jump in March 2025 meant grocery prices were about 0.49% higher than in January 2025 — the month Trump returned to office. While some specific grocery stores may have seen price drops, the overall trend reflects an increase in prices.
These price hikes occurred prior to Trump’s imposition of the 10% tariffs in early April on imports from most countries (with the exception of agricultural goods from major trading partners like Canada and Mexico, which are part of the USMCA agreement). The tariffs are likely to push grocery prices even higher, though the exact impact remains unclear. If Trump reinstates the higher tariffs he temporarily paused in early April, prices could rise even further.
Let's also assess Trump’s other claims about inflation in his recent social media posts.
While it’s true that oil prices have decreased since Trump returned to office, many analysts suggest this drop is partly due to concerns that the tariff wars Trump initiated will slow global economic growth, thus reducing demand for oil.
U.S. retail gas prices have fallen slightly this month, with the national average dropping from around $3.20 per gallon on April 1 to approximately $3.17 per gallon on Thursday. However, prices have increased slightly since Trump’s return to office on January 20, when the average was about $3.12 per gallon.
Retail egg prices have surged under Trump due to an avian flu outbreak, reaching a new high of about $6.23 per dozen on average in March — a 25.7% increase from January. While wholesale egg prices have dropped sharply since late February, it's possible that consumer prices for eggs are starting to fall this month as well.
Trump does have one piece of data to support his claim that consumer prices are decreasing: there was a slight 0.05% decline in overall prices in March 2025 compared to February 2025, on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, this decrease occurred before the imposition of the 10% tariffs in April. Even with this small decline, prices were still about 0.17% higher than in January 2025 and approximately 2.41% higher than in March 2024.
In summary, despite Trump’s assertions, the reality is that grocery prices and many other consumer goods have continued to rise under his administration, and the new tariffs are likely to exacerbate these increases.
